Drezner: Fear of a Great Power War Could Be Making One More Likely
Daniel Dreznar has started posting a monthly column for World Politics Review. His first column (which isaccessible if you register) assesses the prospects of a great power war occurring as the result of increased concerns by such powers that they will be cut off from critical resources by economic sanctions or embargoes. His analysis looks at four sources of the recent great power peace:
US Hegemony
Commercial Interdependence
Nuclear Deterrence
National Elites considering great power war as inconceivable.
This last pillar of peace is one that Dreznar thinks has been unspoken and has been weakening of late.
“In 2025, U.S. hegemony looks wobbly, and great powers are falling all over themselves to reject interdependence unless it favors them asymmetrically. Increasingly, elites in the U.S. and China seem to be conceiving of how a war between the two countries would play out. Which means we may be about to test whether the last pillar of great power peace—the logic of mutually assured destruction—remains compelling or not.”